Long-Term Treasury Rates and the Fed Chair’s Upcoming Jackson Remarks

As long-term Treasury yields climb above 5%, the Fed faces a looming test: let markets force fiscal discipline or intervene in the long end.

Aug 19 • Thomas Hoenig

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Is U.S. Economic Dominance at Risk?

Introduction and Outlook

Aug 3 • Thomas Hoenig

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July 2026

Chairman Warsh’s Dilemma

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has inherited a dilemma that no FOMC can solve with monetary policy alone.

Jul 27 • Thomas Hoenig

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The Fed’s Balance Sheet Girth: A Symptom, Not the Problem

The Fed's growing balance sheet is a symptom—not the problem. Persistent federal deficits and Treasury market policy are the real drivers.

Jul 9 • Thomas Hoenig

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June 2026

Capital Strength: The Long Game

Lower Capital Requirements Risk Eroding U.S. Banks' Competitive Advantage

Jun 29 • Thomas Hoenig

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Evolving Private Credit

Rapid growth, expanding leverage, and deeper financial linkages are changing the industry's risk profile

Jun 23 • Thomas Hoenig

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Chairman Kevin Warsh: The New Sheriff in Town

Chairman Warsh appears determined to get the markets behaving as markets and not as wards of the Fed.

Jun 18 • Thomas Hoenig

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Kevin Warsh and the Future of the Fed

Tom Hoenig and I reflect on Kevin Warsh, Fed independence, and lessons from the Bernanke transition to Fed Chair

Published on Macroeconomic Policy Nexus • Jun 8

May 2026

Chairman Warsh Takes the Reins. What Follows?

Kevin Warsh inherits an economy shaped by deficits, inflation, geopolitical risk, and growing pressure on Fed independence.

May 22 • Thomas Hoenig

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April 2026

Central Bank Independence — To What Degree?

How independent should central banks really be? Unchecked discretion risks fiscal dominance, asset inflation, and eroded credibility. A case for clear…

Apr 24 • Thomas Hoenig

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Kevin Warsh's Confirmation Hearing

Four Quick Reactions

Apr 21 • Thomas Hoenig

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Boom-Bust Cycle

Why the U.S. Economy’s Strength in 2026 May Lead to Instability in 2027

Apr 17 • Thomas Hoenig

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